About

Built for the CFO who has to sign one number.

ScenarioCast stress tests budgets, forecasts and business cases. It turns a plan into odds. A plan has a chance of being met, a downside, and two or three drivers that decide it. We make those visible before the number is signed, not after.

Who it is for

Finance teams at manufacturers with $100M to $1B in revenue. The companies where commodity prices, tariffs and freight move the year more than anything the sales team does, and where cash is watched as closely as EBITDA. The same teams take capex and acquisition cases to the board with a hurdle rate attached, and want to know the odds on that too. In CFO surveys, commodity prices and tariffs sit among the top three risks. Most budgets still carry them as one number.

What we believe

A budget is a range that has been rounded to one cell. The rounding hides the odds. Monte Carlo simulation, the method banks have priced risk with for decades, puts the odds back. It does not need a new system. It needs a driver model, honest ranges, and an engine that runs 10,000 scenarios in seconds.

We also believe finance teams should not guess Henry Hub or steel in a budget meeting. That is why every driver gets a range from forward curves and bank forecasts, with its owner's name next to it, before anyone argues about the point estimate.

How we work

We call it the Kick-start: a Budget Stress Test. Ten working days, $20,000 fixed, your Excel file. We build the model fully for you: up to 25 drivers, EBITDA through to cash flow, covenant headroom. If the driver model does not reconcile to your budget to the dollar, you do not pay. We map your plan into the template, your assumption owners set the ranges in one workshop, and the Studio runs it. After that you re-run whenever an assumption moves. No consulting retainer, no modelling language to learn.

Where to start

Read what a budget stress test is. Open the public use case to see the full Studio on a manufacturer's plan. Read the articles to see the method applied to public companies and to a $400M US manufacturer. Or book a 30-minute demo and bring your own file.

Contact

Talk to the person who built it.

Thirty minutes on Microsoft Teams, your numbers or ours, every weekday.

Book a 30-minute demo Security and data handling
hello@scenariocast.io Every weekday, 09:00 to 20:00 Amsterdam time, in your own time zone Replies within one business day