Budget Stress Test · for CFOs and FP&A

Your budget is one number. We tell you the odds of hitting it.

Send your Excel budget. We run it 10,000 times and hand back the chance of hitting the number, the downside, and the two drivers that decide it. Ten working days, fixed fee.

Book a 30-minute demo Open the use case
// budgets · forecasts · business cases  ·  live in days, not months
Example: a real $30M cash plan, run 10,000 times Live
21.3% P50 $7.2M
2,128 of 10,000 runs clear the $30M plan.
Douglas Dynamics, $570M US manufacturer · our plan, from its filings − → +
From your Excel 10,000 scenarios per run Odds on EBITDA and cash Ten working days $20,000 fixed Teams demos every weekday
Try it — this is the real engine

Drag a range. Watch the odds move.

The eight drivers of that $30M plan. Move one and 10,000 scenarios re-run in your browser.

01 · Set the ranges
Navy tick = the plan value. Drag the handles.
02 · How it runs
// pick one value for each assumption, somewhere in its range // calculate the free cash flow the plan gives with those values // repeat this 10,000 times // count how often cash ends up above the plan
10,000 runs · — ms
03 · Read the answer
— chance of hitting the cash plan
P50 — P10 — plan $30.0M
—
Run it on your numbers Open the use case // use case: the same model in the full Studio, no login
The problem

Every budget has odds. Most are signed without knowing them.

Your budget today $30M One number in a board pack. Nobody knows how likely it is.
The same budget, stress tested 21% chance of hitting it  ·  most likely $7.2M  ·  bad year −$26.2M
two drivers, volume and steel, cause half the swing
01

Know the odds before you sign the number.

02

See which two assumptions decide the year.

03

The math banks use, in plain English, from your own Excel.

How it works

Excel in. Odds out. Ten working days.

1Day 1

Send your budget file.

As it is. We rebuild it as a driver model, fully for you.

2Day 6–9

Put a low and a high on each driver.

Ninety minutes with the people who own them. Steel, gas and tariffs come pre-ranged.

3Day 10

Get the odds.

10,000 scenarios: the chance of hitting the budget, the bad year, the two drivers that matter. Back in Excel.

Book a 30-minute demo The ten-day plan → // $20,000 fixed · you do not pay if the model does not reconcile to the dollar
Use case · Douglas Dynamics (NYSE: PLOW)

Open a real cash-flow plan. No login, no setup.

The full Studio on a $570M US manufacturer's plan, built from its filings. Eight drivers, 10,000 scenarios a run.

Open the use case Try the sliders first
What you get

Two parts. Start with the stress test.

The product

Budget Stress Test

Your budget as odds in ten working days. Up to 25 drivers, EBITDA to cash flow, covenant headroom.

$20,000 fixed · no reconciliation, no fee
Price and guarantee →
Software

ScenarioCast Studio

Re-run whenever an assumption moves. Every version kept, your file never overwritten, Excel report back.

$1,000/mo self-managed · $6,000/mo managed
See it on a real plan →
Where it lands

Built for the meeting where the number gets defended.

Manufacturing · United States

Steel, gas and tariffs move weekly. Your price list doesn't.

$400M manufacturer · budget odds 23% · covenant breach 35% · steel 29% of swing
 Business case · capex or acquisition

Stress test the case before the board signs it.

case clears the hurdle in 36% of runs · volume ramp 53% of the swing
 Public company

Guidance is a range. Give one you can defend.

guidance midpoint at P55 · downside floor stated
 Budget season · PE-backed

Negotiate the target with the odds on the table.

target +5% → odds 61% → 44% · trade made explicit
Articles

Real companies, run as 10,000 scenarios.

Manufacturing · USA

A $400M manufacturer budgets $44M EBITDA. The odds say 23%.

steel 29% of the swing · cash negative one year in three
 Tariffs · USA

Tariff by origin: the rate is not the risk. Pass-through is.

duty bill $9M to $17M · pass-through 46% of the swing
 Chemicals · Europe

BASF: the guidance band has no odds attached.

guided band a one-in-four outcome · gas drives half the swing
 Steel · Global

ArcelorMittal: no guidance. We modelled what that implies.

cash covers capex plus returns three years in four
All articles →
Book a demo

Bring your budget.
Leave with a probability.

Thirty minutes on Microsoft Teams, your numbers or ours, run live. No deck.

Book a 30-minute demo Open the use case first
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