Your team can range price, volume and hiring. Nobody in your building should be guessing Brent. We maintain the ranges for the drivers markets set — reviewed monthly, delivered as a Drivers sheet that drops straight into your model.
P10–P90 windows around a base, with the shape your model should sample from. Illustrative values shown — subscribers receive the maintained sheet on the first business day of each month.
| Commodity | Unit | Base | P10 | P90 | Range | Shape | Reviewed | Open item |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude | USD/bbl | 68 | 58 | 84 | triangular | 1 Sep | OPEC+ quota path | |
| TTF natural gas | EUR/MWh | 31 | 24 | 46 | triangular | 1 Sep | Storage vs winter draw | |
| German baseload power | EUR/MWh | 78 | 62 | 105 | triangular | 1 Sep | Follows TTF | |
| HRC steel · EU | EUR/t | 640 | 560 | 740 | uniform | 1 Sep | Import quota review | |
| Container freight · FEU | USD | 2,400 | 1,800 | 3,600 | triangular | 1 Sep | Red Sea routing | |
| EUR/USD | rate | 1.08 | 1.02 | 1.13 | normal | 1 Sep | Rate-path divergence | |
| EUR/CNY | rate | 7.72 | 7.45 | 8.05 | normal | 1 Sep | Managed-band policy |
// P10–P90 means: 8 months in 10 should land inside the window. When one breaks out, the note explains why — and the next sheet moves.
The base is anchored on the liquid forward curve, not on anyone's opinion. Where curves are thin, we say so.
The P10–P90 window blends options-implied volatility with realised moves over comparable regimes. Wide when the market is wide — never comfortingly narrow.
Every range ships with one sentence on what would break it. If you can't explain an assumption to the board, it shouldn't be in the model.
The monthly sheet, mapped to your drivers during implementation. Ask for a sample with the demo.